Member Exclusive  //   October 1, 2026

Big-Box Briefing: What to watch for as Amazon, Target and Walmart host their fall sales

By Anna Hensel
Ivy Liu

Next week, Amazon, Target and Walmart all kick off their major fall sales, in what will be a key test of consumer demand ahead of the all-important holiday season. 

Since 2022, when Amazon introduced a second fall Prime Day, major big-box retailers have followed suit, and the first week of October has become a bigger sales period during what has historically otherwise been a sleepier retail month. Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days will take place on October 6-7; Walmart’s Fall Deals Sale will run from October 5-11; and Target Circle will host a sale for members of its free Target Circle loyalty program on October 6-7. Members of its paid Target 360 program will get access to the sale a day early. 

Even before Amazon introduced the second fall Prime Day four years ago, people were already starting their holiday shopping earlier and earlier. Roughly two in five consumers plan to start their holiday shopping by the end of October, a recent PayPal survey found.

But this year’s sales come at an interesting inflection point — there’s been another notable spike in gas prices over the past couple of weeks and, on average, a gallon of gasoline is up $1.43 since the Iran War started, per NBC News. And U.S. consumer sentiment has hit the lowest level since 2014, according to the latest data from the University of Michigan’s monthly survey. 

So, while many forecasts are still predicting another record holiday season, next week’s sales will be a key test for how much people are willing to spend, what they are buying, where they are doing product research, and what kind of messaging retailers may find success with. 

Here’s what I’ll be watching for over the next week: 

The mix of what people buy 

During summer Prime Day, many shoppers used the opportunity to stock up on essentials like cleaning products or protein bars. And only about 14% of shoppers used the opportunity to buy electronics, according to Numerator.

That left many Amazon sellers and analysts speculating that people were saving their big splurge purchases for Black Friday. Will that also prove to be true during these early October sales? Or will some consumers use the opportunity to check a few major items off of their holiday shopping lists?

A CivicScience survey of more than 2,200 consumers indicates that more people plan to shop Prime Big Deal Days this year than last year. Sixty-nine percent of respondents said they plan to shop Prime Big Deal Days, up from 65% last year. Twenty-six percent of respondents said they plan to use the sale to buy electronics and tech, 16% said they plan to buy home goods, and 19% said they plan to buy beauty or health products — indicating that the product mix of these sales could skew slightly more toward more expensive products. 

Still, “if such a large percentage of consumers are concerned about the increased cost of living,” it stands to reason that many consumers will use these events for pantry reloading or stocking up on essentials, according to Greg Carlucci, senior director analyst at Gartner. 

While CivicScience didn’t survey shoppers on whether they plan to shop Target’s and Walmart’s competing sales, it did ask shoppers where they planned to spend the most on holiday gifts. Forty percent of respondents said they expected to spend most at big-box stores when shopping for holiday gifts. 

Many of these deals are structured in a way to cater to both the pantry reloaders and the people looking to get an early start on holiday shopping. Target, for example, on its deal preview page, says it will offer 30% off Halloween costumes and decor and 40% off Christmas decor and lights.  

Target also announced this week that it has lowered prices on 2,000 items, a move squarely designed to promote its stores as a destination for good deals ahead of the upcoming sale.

The growing role of AI 

This year will be the first holiday season that advertising on ChatGPT is within play, since ChatGPT first started testing advertising in January and rolled out a self-service ad manager in May.

Over the summer, Amazon ran ads on ChatGPT to promote Prime Day; it’s unclear how much of a difference that played in driving Prime Day sales, but some agencies told me at the time that, as a result, they would likely experiment with ChatGPT advertising themselves by the time fall Prime Day rolled around. I’ll also be watching to see if Target and Walmart run AI advertising to promote their fall Prime Day sales. 

All three companies have also rolled out new AI shopping features of their own over the past year — Amazon has rebranded its Rufus shopping assistant as Alexa for Shopping and made these features more prominent across the Amazon shopping experience. Target has added AI-driven photo search and review summaries features to its app. Walmart has had its AI shopping assistant, Sparky, for over a year now, but the number of people who use it keeps climbing. During its second fiscal quarter earnings call, Walmart CEO John Furner said that the number of people who use Sparky was up 70% from last year, and those who used Sparky spent 40% more than those who didn’t. 

Lastly, this will also be the first big sale where Meta’s personal shopping agent, Muse, is in play — Amazon has blocked access to Muse, but Meta has named Walmart as a Muse partner.

These big fall sales will be a chance for retailers to further work out any kinks with AI tools and gather more data on how shoppers use them ahead of the holidays. The data varies widely when people are asked how much they use AI in shopping. For example, PwC’s holiday report found that 29% of shoppers plan to use AI in their holiday shopping this year, while a survey from returns startup Navar found that 65% of shoppers plan to use AI for holiday shopping. And many people may use AI without even realizing it. 

“We have found that half of consumers are using AI tools when they’re shopping, and I think that is indicative of the interest in using them, but also what those tools can do as far as searching for the best price, hunting for deals. … And I think that is a significant change in behavior,” Carlucci said. 

How brands balance various channels 

Even though Amazon sets the sales cycle, consumers have grown more aware that other companies are likely to host sales during these same periods and are comparing prices accordingly. 

Amit Dodeja, Chief Marketing Officer at marketplace accelerator Spreetail, said in an email that Spreetail’s clients “saw stronger-than-average growth” on Walmart and TikTok this year during summer Prime Day. Spreetail also saw double-digit sales growth compared to last year’s Prime Day, and deal participation across its brand partners increased more than 30% year over year. “That tells us that consumers are still showing up for these deal events, even as they become more selective about what they buy and where they buy it.” 

Still, increased tariffs, freight and costs mean that these events are putting more pressure on margins. And, while brands are still showing up, they have to be more selective about how they show up, especially if they are operating across multiple marketplaces. 

“We’re advising brands to look at promotions at the product level rather than treating these events as a blanket discount period,” Dodeja said. “Which products can support a deeper discount? Where does it make sense to hold margin? How much inventory should sit behind each promotion on which marketplace?”

Ultimately, the holiday season is a marathon, not a sprint — and these October sales events are just the beginning. “Consumers are spreading purchases across multiple events instead of waiting for one big sale, so inventory, pricing and promotional spend have to be coordinated across the season rather than around a single two-day spike,” Dodeja said.

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