Retail Debrief: Listen in for a rundown of the trends that will shape the 2025 holiday sales period
Modern Retail’s latest virtual Retail Debrief featured a roundtable discussion on holiday spending trends with executive editor Anna Hensel, senior reporter Melissa Daniels and reporter Julia Waldow. The recording of the event is available for Modern Retail+ members.
The conversation kicks off with an overview of consumer sentiment heading into the busiest shopping season of the year. Many surveys and studies are showing how financially stressed consumers are right now, and that means they’re holding out for the best deals. During Prime Day in July, for example, a Numerator survey indicated that over half of shoppers purchased something they had been waiting to buy until it went on sale.
Then the team unpacks what the latest data shows about how much consumers are cutting back, and what that means for the customer journey. Consumers plan to spend an average of $1,595 this holiday season, a 10% drop year-over-year, per Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Retail Survey, as they reduce their spending on both retail goods and experiences. But they’re also mentally preparing for higher prices along the way, with 77% of surveyed consumers expecting higher prices on holiday items. As a Morning Consult Pro report explains, the financial pressure means about one in four shoppers say they’ll simply spend more to get what they want — while another one in four shoppers say they’ll spend the same amount they usually do and get less in return.
Then the discussion turns to how generative AI is changing shopper behavior. Many signs point to this holiday season seeing a huge shift in how people are using AI engines to shop — an August 2025 survey from Omnisend, for instance, found nearly 60% of U.S. consumers have already used a generative AI tool for help with online shopping. But that could shift even more thanks to Instant Checkout through ChatGPT, which has rolled out on Etsy and will soon roll out for Walmart and Shopify. Overall, this holiday season could mark a turning point for AI-assisted shopping, thanks to people looking for the best price and navigating e-commerce sites that are frequently deploying new agentic AI tools and trackers.
Press play now to watch the full Retail Debrief, and stay tuned for future events for Modern Retail+ subscribers.