The retail lobby readies itself for tariff fights during a second Trump presidency
Less than 48 hours after President Donald Trump’s second electoral victory, retail and manufacturing lobbies are already strategizing around proposed tariffs that could drive up the cost of their goods.
Trump has floated a proposal for at least a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports during his second term. While there aren’t any specific details on how those plans would roll out, tariffs could generally have a negative effect on the U.S. economy by driving up business costs — and, in turn, consumer prices. The National Retail Federation earlier this week released a study saying that the proposals of a 10-20% tariff on all goods — plus 60-100% on goods from China specifically –– could cost consumers between $46 billion and $78 billion each year.
“We are an industry that relies on trade,” Nate Herman, svp of policy with the American Apparel & Footwear Association, said. “About 97% of the clothes and shoes sold across the United States are imported, and 95% of our customers are outside the United States. We live and die by trade, so tariffs are obviously extremely important.”
AAFA is one of the organizations that has put out statements this week pledging to work with the Trump administration on tariff and trade policies. But businesses and their advocates have already been preparing for the potential. Autozone’s CEO Philip Daniele said back in September the company would pass hypothetical tariff costs back to the consumer, per CNN. Then on Thursday, Steve Madden company leaders said the company was working to shift product sourcing out of China by as much as 45% in the next year, according to Reuters.
Randy Carr, CEO of badge and patch manufacturing company World Emblem, said his company was already looking at the costs of what it’s buying overseas versus internally. Two months ago, the company acquired another firm, Hero’s Pride, that makes uniform badges and imports mainly from China and other overseas places. However, World Emblem operates its own manufacturing facilities in North America. “We’re identifying the products they’re buying from overseas vendors and comparing those against our cost models,” Carr said. “Can we reduce inventory or shift to a made-to-order model? We’re in a good position because we have flexibility: we can manufacture overseas or domestically.”
More broadly, though, Carr said tariffs could have a negative effect on consumers because of businesses passing along the higher costs. “If tariffs like those in 2016 come back, inflation will follow. Companies like Heroes Pride, which rely on imports, will face higher costs that customers may resist paying,” he said.
But that’s where some of the lobbying groups come in. Herman from AAFA said the group will lobby for a “three-pronged approach” that includes renewing existing trade programs that can be an alternative to tariffs. That includes reviving the General System of Preferences, a trade program that expired in 2021 that eliminated taxes on imports from designated countries. Herman said that duty-free access comes with criteria like market access, IP protection and labor standards. The Trump administration previously leveraged these requirements with countries like Kenya and Indonesia, Herman said, which helps keep the cost of imports low. Renewals of such policies are supported by other groups, such as the Outdoors Industry Association, an organization that represents businesses and sustainability experts in the outdoor industry.
Herman also said AAFA will aim to share with Trump administration officials how previous tariffs negatively impacted its members and drove inflation higher. Back in Trump’s first term, the U.S. put extra tariffs on certain U.S. imports from China, many of which were continued by the Biden administration. These costs, paid by the companies that imported the goods, wound up costing families an average of $460 a year in 2019, according to one analysis.
“Our aim here is to advocate and provide insights on the detrimental inflationary effects of tariffs,” Herman said.
Herman said it’s likely to see Trump use tariffs as “a negotiation tool” to secure new trade agreements, which could help create favorable terms for imports rather than a flat fee.
“President Trump cares deeply about trade issues, especially tariffs, and tends to act on his statements,” Herman said. “Our job is to ensure these actions are done sensibly to achieve his goals.”
NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement to Modern Retail on Thursday that across-the-board tariffs on consumer goods and other non-specific imports would amount to a tax on American households, driving inflation, price increases and job losses. The organization is advocating for “effective” trade policies.
“The retail industry stands ready to work with President-elect Trump and Congress to enact tax, trade and regulatory policies that make America more competitive, increase domestic investment and create jobs,” Shay said.
Rachel Kibbe, the CEO and founder of the American Circular Textiles group, said in an email to Modern Retail that it will continue to focus on pushing for policies that grow domestic jobs and economic development. “The circular ecosystem should not be dismayed, as the policy rationale and societal benefit from a more sustainable textile economy [have] not changed,” Kibbe said of the coming administration change.
The organization advocates for a more suitable textile industry, and Kibbe said that trade reform policies that reverse the country’s reliance on foreign supply chains can encourage circularity. One policy ACT supports is the Americas Act, which would close the de minimus loophole, put $1 billion in textile innovation and $14 billion in loans and grants in place for reuse and recycling-related businesses.
“To balance the inevitable rise in cost of imported goods to American consumers, there is also an opportunity to support domestic jobs, reduce our dependence on foreign supply chains while improving national security and enhance our global competitiveness,” Kibbe said.