Big-Box Briefing: What to watch this holiday season as Target, Walmart and more battle for sales
This is the latest installment of the Big-Box Briefing, a weekly Modern Retail+ column about the strategies of major retailers. More from the series →
Retailers have started to put their 2026 holiday plans out into the world. Now, they’re hoping shoppers show up.
Within the past week, nearly all the major brick-and-mortar retailers — Target, Walmart, Kohl’s, Best Buy and Macy’s, to name a few— have put out press releases detailing when their Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales will take place this year. Alongside that, they’ve also started teasing their holiday strategies — giving media presentations on new items that will hit the sales floor this year or releasing sneak peeks of their holiday advertising campaigns.
Many of the strategies in place this year are extensions of tactics that have been growing in popularity over the last few years. Many retailers are once again extending their Cyber Week sales by a day or two, or are hosting early Black Friday deals — with some retailers like Lowe’s and Best Buy even hosting sales before the end of October.
But what’s different this year is the added pressure from inflation and uncertain consumer sentiment. NRF is forecasting another record holiday sales season, projecting that seasonal sales will reach $1 trillion for the first time.
There’s no doubt that consumers will spend this holiday season. But if their budgets are exhausted early by sales or they cut back on what they are willing to spend due to yet another hike in gas prices, it could still end up being a ho-hum holiday for some retailers.
“There are going to be a lot of unknowns coming out of this holiday, and it’s really going to be hard to pick who the winners are going to be at this point in time,” said Michael Brown, partner and Americas Retail Leader at global strategy and management consulting firm Kearney.
Here are some of the big themes analysts and consultants said they’ll be watching this holiday season.
The battle over value and affordability
“Value” is the word that’s been touted over and over again by retail executives, as they’ve sought to convince customers why their products are a good deal. Target has made multiple pushes to lower prices this year, most recently announcing in September that it would be lowering prices on nearly 2,000 home and apparel products.
But in the lead-up to the holiday season, the conversation around pricing is becoming more overt, with multiple retailers touting which products they have available within different pricing tiers. Kohl’s, for example, is trumpeting the fact that it will have nearly 2,000 beauty items under $30, thanks to its partnership with Sephora. Target said there will be 8,000 new gifts as part of its holiday assortment this year, with more than half of them under $20.
Price point is “becoming more and more important to shoppers whose fixed costs have gone up faster than their wages have, particularly with fuel costs being high,” said Bryan Gildenberg, founder of Confluencer Commerce.
Retailers this year are working off the assumption that, even more so than in years past, shoppers have a strict budget they are sticking to and want to see how much they can squeeze in within that budget. But that could also change if gas prices spike even more in November and December, and retailers may need to get more aggressive with their marketing.
The challenge in trying to win on price, Brown said, is that “Amazon and Walmart are really the leaders in the ability to do that.”
“They have that advantage of convenience,” Brown added. “Walmart customers are always in the store. Amazon is really easy, and now Target and Macy’s and others have to chase that with their compelling affordability and the products.”
Category creep
Another trend Gildenberg sees continuing this holiday season is retailers creeping into new categories to win a greater share of wallet. Lowe’s, for example, is trying to position more of its products as being ideal for gift-giving.
In its holiday press release, Lowe’s urged customers to “give the gift of fewer to-dos with a HomeCare+ gift card. HomeCare+ costs $99 per year and gives homeowners access to “help twice a year with up to seven essential home maintenance services, including air filter replacements, dryer vent cleaning and more, completed by trained Lowe’s associates.” In that same press release, Lowe’s also highlights “toys, bed, apparel and gifts” shoppers could find from its Heart & Heard pet brand, and its increased assortment of holiday decor.
“When retailers try to get a little bit too far outside of the core reason why the shopper is there, it gets weird and confusing pretty fast,” Gidlenberg said. However, with Lowe’s, he said, there’s a case that if the product is for your home, “it can fit into the Lowe’s proposition.”
Target, meanwhile, is embracing new merchandising strategies that stretch across categories. This season, one of Target’s big focuses will be a collection of Harry Potter-inspired exclusive products that will hit Target’s stores and website on Nov. 7 in honor of the new HBO TV series coming out on Christmas Day. The 350 Harry Potter-inspired products will include apparel, home decor, accessories and collectibles.
‘Tis the season for agentic commerce
The other question mark this holiday season will be just how much shoppers will consult new AI shopping assistants. Target just rolled out its AI shopping assistant, Ask Target, in beta this month, in time for the holiday sales rush. Walmart and Lowe’s, meanwhile, launched their AI shopping assistants, called Mylow and Sparky, in 2026.
Many of these AI shopping assistants are designed to be another source shoppers can consult for gifting ideas — i.e., “Looking for a quiet-luxury-inspired gift for her, focusing on clothing and accessories under $50.”
It’s likely that the industry won’t get the full picture of how these tools performed this holiday season — and how popular they proved to be — until retailers report their fourth-quarter earnings in the beginning of 2027.
But what Brown finds most interesting is that more shoppers will use not just Sparky or Mylow, but also other platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini, for price monitoring. Now that consumers can price monitor even more surgically, it increases the risk that a retailer may lose out on a sale “if an agent goes out and it just happens to be the day that Macy’s is a couple dollars cheaper,” Brown said.
“Agentic commerce is really the wild card this holiday season,” Brown added. “Who’s going to get the lion’s share of this automated shopping without the consumer really looking at everything that’s out around them?”
What I’m reading
- Dollar General is being sued by the FTC and 20 states over its pricing practices. The lawsuit accuses the retailer of repeatedly charging more than advertised prices.
- Target has overhauled its largest owned brand in the home category, Threshold, in its quest to regain market share in home.
- Walmart’s chief marketing officer made the interview rounds this week to share what inspired its Muppet-themed holiday campaign.