Supply Chain Shakeup  //   June 1, 2026

The slow trickle-down of tariff refunds

By Melissa Daniels
Cash register with a receipt with lots of dollar signs popping out of it
Ivy Liu

The U.S. government so far is on tap to reimburse $85 billion worth of tariff refunds. But there’s still a way to go for the government to fully reimburse companies for the now-unconstitutional tariffs — or before any of those funds may be returned to customers.

A new court declaration from Brandon Lord, the director of the Office of Trade at U.S. Customs and Border Protection, said the government has accepted about $85 billion worth of potential and certified refunds for processing.

So far, just about $20.6 billion worth of refunds has been sent to the U.S. Treasury for disbursement. But there’s roughly $166 billion in illegal duties owed to importers overall.

The refunds are for tariffs that were ordered by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. But the U.S. Supreme Court in late February said in a 6-3 ruling that the act didn’t authorize the president to issue tariffs single-handedly.

Since then, CBP, the federal agency that handles tariff payments, has begun operating a new system to process billions of dollars in refunds to importers. In late April, it launched a new functionality called the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) to calculate and verify what refunds companies are owed.

The process of the CAPE system has surprised some based on how efficient it seems to be. But it hasn’t been without its hiccups. As my colleague Julia Waldow reported a few weeks ago, companies like Baby’s Brew and Wild Rye were initially unable to access the portal.

Lord’s declaration, filed Tuesday in the U.S. Court of International Trade, also said:

  • CBP received more than 157,400 declarations from importers and their brokers
  • About 108,760 declarations were deemed valid, with the rest having potentially mismatched file numbers, entry numbers or template issues
  • The valid declarations cover more than 15.8 million tariff entries
  • About 4,185 refunds have not been sent to the U.S. Treasury for processing due to missing account information

Click here for the full recap from CBP

Companies from Costco and Walmart to General Motors have reported filing for refunds, with the expectation that it may take some time to get the refunds. Ron Vachris, president and CEO of Costco, said on Thursday’s third-quarter earnings call that the company anticipates receiving approved claims on a rolling basis over the next two to three months.

The company is also facing a lawsuit seeking refunds for customers who may have paid higher prices to cover tariffs. Vachris said Thursday the intention is to return any portion of tariffs that were passed down to members.

“How much we return and when depends on a variety of factors, including how much refund money we receive and when it arrives, as well as developments in the lawsuit filed against the company regarding the return process,” Vachris said.

Walmart, too, said it might use the tariff refund to pay back shoppers. CEO John Furner told investors on the company’s first-quarter earnings call that it has considered using any tariff rebate it receives to help offset rising consumer prices.

“We would definitely bias and try to prioritize price investment for that, given what we’ve seen, both in terms of the pressure on consumers from fuel prices and, importantly, the retention and the share gains we’ve had,” he said. “We think the single best return we can have on a dollar capital right now is to invest in the customer and invest in price.” 

The week in tariffs

  • The roller coaster of global tariff policy is having ramifications beyond the U.S. economy. Reuters reported last week that Canada posted a 0.1% surprise contraction in the first quarter of 2026 compared to 2025. Looking ahead, oil price hikes and the upcoming review of NAFTA may add further challenges to the country’s economic picture.
  • Questions and concerns remain around the latest trade deal between the U.S. and China. AgDaily reports that Beijing has yet to confirm that China will be buying at least $17 billion in additional agricultural products each year for the next three years.

What we’ve covered

What recent retail earnings revealed about the state of consumer health

As retailers continue to make cautious outlooks for the rest of the year, brands are still seeing resilient consumer spending. MR’s executive editor, Anna Hensel, reports that multiple earnings reports in late May showed a surprisingly large number of bright spots considering inflationary pressures.

Some companies are leaning on lower prices to keep their consumer. For example, E.l.f. Beauty saw sales lifts on Amazon, TikTok Shop and in retailers after decreasing the price of its Halo Glow Skin tint by $4. Others are rethinking how they communicate value, while being mindful of the impact that increased fuel prices could have on shoppers’ wallets.

As Target, Walmart and Aldi embrace naturally-colored food, brands rush to meet demand

More brands are ditching artificial dyes in products like cereal, frozen food and packaged snacks — in part, because retailers are asking them to. Target has said that all of its cereals would be made without certified synthetic colors, while Walmart, Sam’s Club and Aldi are making similar moves. To help meet the new demand, MR’s Gabriela Barkho reports that brands like Seven Sundays are launching exclusives as they move from the natural channel into mass retail.

“Every single retailer we talk to, whether it’s Walmart or Sam’s Club or Costco — the push for cleaner ingredients comes up in every meeting,” said CEO Hannah Barnstable.

What we’re reading