How a surge in boycotts could upend the retail industry this year

Additionally, roughly 9% of shoppers said they planned to participate in The People’s Union USA’s weeklong Amazon boycott this week, per a Numerator survey. The organization is also planning a Nestlé boycott from March 21-28, a Walmart boycott from April 7-14 and another one-day blackout on April 18.

“In the retail industry, we often say that consumers vote with their feet. But I don’t think we’ve ever meant it to the degree we do now,” said Lisa Wagner, longtime retail expert and asset manager with The Outlet Resource Group.

Early data showed that the Feb. 28 one-day economic blackout did not have much of an impact on traffic and sales. But a week-long or 40-day boycott could have more teeth.

Still, the more pressing issue is that no brand or retailer is completely immune to punitive action from a segment of consumers who are increasingly spending money according to their social and political values. For retailers, these boycotts pose an existential threat in a year when they’re also trying to figure out how to deal with macroeconomic challenges like tariffs and inflations. These actions may also have unintended consequences, hurting small businesses from diverse owners and founders on the shelves.

An existential threat for some brands

Black brand owners and founders had previously warned that if customers boycott retailers like Target that have pulled back on DEI initiatives, it could jeopardize their sales and, in turn, harm brands’ standing with retailers. That fear is starting to look more real.

Some smaller brands at retailers such as Target are feeling pressure from boycotts, Dwight Allen O’Neal and Karess Rosemé, co-founders and co-CEOs of the Rose Neal Collective — an agency that works with Black beauty founders — told Modern Retail.

O’Neal said the agency noticed some brands who would typically see a spike in sales at retailers during Black History Month instead saw the opposite, adding that the DEI moves could also impact people with disabilities and veterans. One brand he works with could potentially lose shelf space or go out of business because of a huge decline in February sales, he said.

“It’s so unfortunate that because of Target’s decision, they are having to suffer and they are being punished,” he said. “When you have to have those fierce conversations with someone, where they put their all into creating this brand and now it may no longer exist, that’s a heavy conversation to have, and that’s the reality of where we are.”

For brands, this is yet another worry as they are focused on managing relationships with retailers and potentially pivoting their suppliers to those from other countries due to tariff threats. “Brands are worried about everything,” Rosemé said, also noting that smaller brands often don’t have the same financial flexibility as others to absorb the impact of even a short drop-off in sales.

O’Neal said some brand owners or founders who also have DTC businesses, distribute more widely or are newer to the shelves may be less impacted, but that this could be especially detrimental for brands particularly reliant on a store like Target.

“We’re really encouraging [brands] to partner with our merchants and buyers and find out exactly what direction Target, their competitors and whoever else are actually going in,” O’Neal said. “We’re really trying to make sure they’re not making emotional decisions, but practical ones, and that they’re looking at the long-term effect of what their decisions now can mean for their business.”

Another headache for major retailers

Fueled by social media sharing, economic boycotts have become a frequent tool for shoppers to wield their opinions on company policies, partnerships or perceived values. Sometimes this comes from voters’ perception of companies being too “woke” — like in 2023, when Bud Light saw sales drop after working with influencer Dylan Mulvaney, a trans woman. Back in 2018, Nike was boycotted after working with Colin Kaepernick who had become derided for his support of Black Lives Matter. 

But boycotts or protests are equally deployed by left-leaning shoppers, who have long avoided places like Chick-fil-A and Hobby Lobby because of their ownership’s religious beliefs and political leanings. For example, activists in the United Kingdom convinced a landlord not to extend Chick-fil-A’s lease in a shopping center in 2019, according to the BBC. And shoppers called for a boycott of Hobby Lobby in 2020 over reproductive rights and the company’s reopening stores in states with stay-at-home mandates during the pandemic, per Business Insider.

Yet for all these actions, companies still thrive. Hobby Lobby has over 1,000 stores, while competitors like Joann file for bankruptcy. Chick-fil-A has over 3,000 stores and is undertaking an international expansion. Bud Light owner AB InBev ended 2024 with a 2.7% revenue boost.

So far in 2025, consumers are already pulling back spending because of the combination of inflation, tariff policies and fears of a recession. Combined with targeted consumer actions, it could prove to be a potent concoction of challenges that puts brands and retailers on thin ice and even out of business. 

“If it were just consumers reacting to a perceived value misalignment — or, on the other hand, alignment — that would be important, but not necessarily as significant as what we’re seeing,” Wagner from TORG said. “Consumers are savvy and understand they have a voice. They have choices.”

The retail industry isn’t a stranger to navigating consumer behavior shifts or recessions. But as Wagner explained, if consumer actions pair with broader economic pressures and market fluctuations, it can cause a perfect storm that would impact retailers. 

“We, as an industry, are anticipating some level of carnage, frankly,” she said. “The industry, this time, is trying to be prepared.”

For retailers, boycotts are just another complicating factor during already challenging times, said Mickey Chadha, a retail analyst and vp of corporate finance for Moody’s Ratings. Anything that impacts traffic impacts performance, he said.

Some early numbers suggest the Feb. 28 boycott may have had some measurable effect across retailers — Target saw visits that day drop by 10.7% compared to the average traffic over the previous five Fridays, and 4.1% compared to the daily average of visits year-to-date, per Placer.ai, which uses cellphone data to measure retail foot traffic. However, correlation doesn’t necessarily equal causation, the firm cautioned. Target said it expects a drop in first-quarter profits due to consumer uncertainty, soft February sales and tariffs, CNBC reported.

Target’s actions on DEI were especially surprising and shocking to customers because the retailer had historically positioned itself in a different way than others, O’Neal said. “We as consumers, myself included, hold them to an entirely different caliber than Walmart.” In 2021, Target pledged to add products from more than 500 Black-owned brands to its shelves and spend more than $2 billion with other Black-owned businesses, such as marketing agencies, construction companies and facilities maintenance firms. It had also sponsored a Pride festival in Minnesota and had promoted LGBTQ+-themed merchandise in a 2023 Pride Month initiative that led to backlash from conservative-aligned groups and legal threats. The retailer scaled back its collection a year later. 

Rosemé said her and O’Neal’s agency is telling brands to lean into authenticity as people seek safety and comfort.

“As individuals are being selective with what they’re spending — whether it’s through boycotting or if it’s through saving — and wanting to spend money on just essential items or very specific luxury items, they want to do so in a way where they feel their dollar is being spent on something they value, and also something that [reflects] their values,” she said.

Looking ahead, Chadha said retailers can address customers with better communication around why they have made certain decisions or what they’re doing to encourage all customers to come to the stores. “Overall, these issues are best dealt with by communication — and better communication than just reacting to it,” he said. 

But ultimately, Chadha said behemoths like Target and Walmart are well-positioned to weather temporary phenomena like boycotts. That may not be the case for small businesses, however.

“These retailers [Target and Walmart] have enough capacity to absorb these temporary blips in their performance, and so I don’t expect a major impact on the longer term for profitability or traffic,” he said. “These boycotts have happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future, but these companies are quite strong, and they can withstand these boycotts.”