5 things to watch for this Prime Day
Amazon’s Prime Day event is returning June 23-26, marking the second year in a row that the company has stretched the sale to four days. But this year’s event comes with another major change. Amazon moved Prime Day up by several weeks, turning what has traditionally been a July shopping event into the unofficial kickoff to the summer sales season.
Prime Day arrives against a backdrop of economic uncertainty. Gas prices have soared since the start of the war in Iran, and while a peace deal has arrived, the national average for regular gas is above $4 a gallon. Meanwhile, Americans’ paychecks have failed to keep up with inflation, dampening consumer confidence.
And yet, consumers are still opening their wallets. U.S. retail sales rose in May, beating expectations. That resilience could help fuel another busy Prime Day.
Sellers also appear more upbeat than they were a year ago. Many sellers told Modern Retail that tariff concerns have eased compared to last summer, giving them more confidence heading into one of Amazon’s biggest shopping events of the year. At the same time, brands remain cautious about profitability.
Prime Day is expected to generate more than $26 billion in online sales across retailers during the four-day event, according to eMarketer forecasts. Here are five things to watch.
Consumer participation is rising, but shoppers want real deals
Amazon appears poised to draw more shoppers this year. According to marketing platform Omnisend, 55% of consumers say they plan to shop Prime Day this year, up from 45% last year. Marketing agency Tinuiti likewise found that 88% of Prime members intend to participate, up from 81% a year ago.
Two-thirds of Omnisend’s respondents said they expect to spend the same amount or more than they did during last year’s Prime Day. Apparel and electronics rank among the most popular planned purchases, while a sizable share of consumers also said they intend to stock up on groceries and household essentials.
Still, many consumers say they are holding out for deeper discounts than usual. Roughly one in five shoppers view 50% off as the minimum threshold for a good deal, while a similar share want at least 40% off, according to Tinuiti.
Consumers have become increasingly savvy about finding deals, according to Sky Canaves, principal analyst at eMarketer.
“There’s always a huge emphasis on discounts, and consumers become savvier and savvier about how to find them,” she said. “They will check prices across retailers, they’ll turn to social media review sites for advice on the best deals, and then they’ll increasingly use Amazon’s own tools, such as new AI-powered price tracking or price history features.”
Indeed, Amazon has made it easier than ever for customers to track prices thanks to its revamped Alexa for Shopping chatbot. The updated shopping assistant lets users track up to a year of price history. Earlier this year, The Information reported that Amazon would implement new pricing rules ahead of Prime Day to prevent sellers from offering misleading promotions.
Everyday essentials will remain a major draw
Amazon is leaning heavily into grocery and household savings this year. The company is promoting deals on fresh foods and other everyday items as it tries to encourage shoppers to buy more frequently from Amazon. For example, Amazon is touting fresh pantry and produce staples priced at $3 or less, with some items as low as $1. Amazon is also offering 40% off its $99 annual grocery subscription plan for Prime members who are not current subscribers.
Brad Jashinsky, director analyst at Gartner, said Amazon’s unusually heavy emphasis on grocery promotions stands out compared to previous Prime Day events. He said the retailer appears to be using Prime Day to build momentum around grocery delivery and compete more directly with Walmart and traditional supermarket chains. Amazon has made grocery a major focus across recent earnings calls, announcements and delivery initiatives.
“There’s never been this big of a focus on grocery,” Jashinsky said.
Amazon is betting that shoppers will use Prime Day to stock up on everyday necessities rather than splurge on expensive items.
“We have seen the gradual shift of Prime Day away from being a very consumer electronics or bigger-ticket purchase focused event into more grocery, household essentials, personal care and beauty,” Canaves said.
The numbers back that up. More than half of Prime Day shoppers say they plan to buy products they would have purchased anyway, according to Tinuiti. Meanwhile, the average amount shoppers spend per item during Prime Day has fallen steadily over the past several years. Average spend per unit was down 27.3% in 2025 compared to 2019, according to data from Numerator.
Canaves said the growing mix of grocery and household purchases is one reason average order values have come down. Smaller-ticket items are often easier for shoppers to justify, especially at a time when many consumers remain focused on stretching their budgets.
“These might be the kinds of items where it’s easier to get consumers to pull the trigger and make impulse purchases when they see a good deal,” Canaves said.
Prime Day could pull forward back-to-school shopping
Amazon’s Prime Day event in June will likely accelerate back-to-school shopping and encourage consumers to start seasonal purchases earlier than usual. The last time Amazon held Prime Day in June was in 2021.
That could pull spending forward on categories such as apparel, travel products, outdoor goods and back-to-school supplies. Tinuiti data found that 17% of Prime Day shoppers plan to buy back-to-school supplies this year, up from 12% in 2025.
In recent years, retailers including Walmart and Target have launched competing sales alongside Prime Day in an effort to capture some of the event’s shopping momentum. Walmart recently announced that its weeklong Walmart Deals event will run from June 22 through June 28, several weeks earlier than last year’s sale, which took place in July. Target has likewise moved up its Target Circle Deal Days promotion, which is scheduled for June 23 through June 26 after running in July last year. Specialty retailers are following Amazon’s lead, as well. Best Buy and Kohl’s likewise announced earlier summer sales.
Still, Jashinsky said June may be too early for many families to begin thinking seriously about school-related purchases. “I don’t know how many consumers are thinking back to school this early,” he said. Instead, he expects categories tied to summer celebrations and household spending to benefit the most. “My best guess is you’ll see a lot of benefits for the household essential CPG” categories, he said.
An earlier start this year could benefit seasonal brands whose products are more relevant earlier in the summer, according to Amit Dodeja, chief marketing officer at Spreetail, which works with 200 brands that primarily sell on Amazon. “What it really does is set up brands that specialize in summer seasonal products to be winners,” Dodeja said. “Summertime is kind of winding down in late July,” giving shoppers less time to enjoy summer seasonal items.
Amazon is reclaiming a bigger share of Prime Day spending
Amazon’s competitors are once again running overlapping sales events. Walmart, Target and Best Buy all moved promotions to coincide with Prime Day. Even so, Amazon appears positioned to capture a larger share of spending than it has in years. Amazon will account for 60.3% of all U.S. e-commerce sales generated during the Prime Day period, its highest share since 2019, according to eMarketer.
Canaves said the earlier June timing gives Amazon an advantage. Brands have had months to prepare marketing campaigns around the event, and many advertisers have already been building awareness ahead of the sale through Amazon’s advertising products.
Jashinsky said rival retailers have little choice but to follow Amazon’s calendar.
“People are shopping,” he said. “If you don’t have the deals, that’s just going to give Amazon even more opportunity.”
AI shopping tools will be everywhere
Amazon has spent the past year embedding AI deeper into its shopping experience. The company’s upgraded Alexa shopping assistant now appears throughout Amazon’s marketplace experience. For example, customers can now ask shopping questions directly in the main search bar, whereas previously shoppers had to click on a chat bubble to use the AI chatbot formerly known as Rufus. Amazon also provides AI-generated summaries at the top of search results and on product detail pages.
In some cases, shoppers may not even realize they are interacting with AI because the tools increasingly sit behind search functions, recommendations and prompts throughout the site, Canaves said. One example is Amazon’s price-taking tool called Auto Buy, which uses AI to automatically purchase products when they reach a certain price. Amazon released the tool last year, but Canaves said she expects Auto Buy to see more adoption from deal-hungry shoppers this Prime Day.
“If they see a 20% off deal, but they want 40% off, they might enter that and see if they can score the deal that they actually want,” Canaves said.
Still, widespread adoption may take time. Jashinsky said many of Amazon’s newest AI shopping tools remain unfamiliar to consumers. As he put it, “This is a great initiative for Amazon to be able to get Prime members interested in utilizing those features, but I do think it’s going to take some time for the majority of Prime members to start adopting those.”