As a TikTok ban looms, sellers brace for the end

With the federal government’s TikTok ban set to take effect on Sunday, dread is beginning to grip the platform’s roughly 500,000 merchants.
It’s been a week filled with uncertainty. The American public has been waiting with bated breath for the Supreme Court to rule on a federal law that requires TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the app to a government-approved buyer by Jan. 19 or face a ban in the U.S. As of Friday morning, the ruling has yet to arrive. (Update: Just after 10 a.m. Eastern on Friday, the Supreme Court issued its ruling upholding the divest-or-ban law). Without intervention from the Supreme Court, TikTok reportedly plans to effectively turn off the app on Sunday.
What happens next is unclear. President-elect Donald Trump has said that he plans to issue an executive order when he takes office on Jan. 20, the day after the ban kicks in, which will delay the divest-or-ban law, per Bloomberg. And even though ByteDance has repeatedly said that a sale isn’t possible, that hasn’t stopped the rumor mill from speculating about potential buyers, from billionaire Frank McCourt to Elon Musk and even MrBeast.
But at least one thing is clear: With the Supreme Court ruling to uphold the law, app stores and internet service providers will be barred from distributing TikTok by Jan. 19. For brands and merchants, this means they’ll lose a crucial sales driver, especially those that rely on TikTok’s e-commerce business, Shop, as comparable social media apps like Instagram and Facebook don’t have shopping baked into their platforms. As the divest-or-ban deadline draws near, brands are scrambling to get their backup plans in order.
Brands that were once optimistic about the app’s fate are beginning to feel a sense of foreboding.
“In the summer, I was very cautiously optimistic. I couldn’t see a world in which TikTok would actually be banned in the United States,” said Lisa Guerrera, founder of TikTok-viral beauty brand Experiment. “Now, we’re less than a week out, and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous.”
Guerrera isn’t alone.
“I used to be really optimistic. I used to be like, ‘There’s no way,’” said Scott McIntosh, whose phone-slash-cup holder invention – dubbed Cell Phone Seat – went viral on TikTok. “And now I’m kind of like, ‘I don’t really know.’”
‘They’re a shadow of what TikTok Shop is’
The divest-or-ban deadline approaches just as sales on TikTok Shop, the app’s e-commerce business, have seen tremendous growth in the 16 months since it launched in the U.S. TikTok Shop tripled its U.S. shopping sales to more than $100 million on Black Friday alone, according to the company.
“TikTok Shop was a huge growth channel for us. We were really picking up steam,” Guerrera said. “While TikTok Shop doesn’t count for a ton of our revenue right now, it’s still something we’ll have to make up elsewhere, and that makes me nervous.”
In preparation for a ban, Experiment has been posting TikTok content on Instagram Reels and YouTube to drum up bigger followings on those platforms. Guerrera also said she is investigating other social shopping platforms, such as Whatnot. Still, she is doubtful that any of these platforms can replicate the same success as TikTok.
“They’re a shadow of what Tiktok Shop is,” Guerrera said. “Nobody goes to TikTok like, ‘Oh yes, I would like to be sold something right now.’ People go to TikTok because it’s fun and, in that process, they end up shopping.”
For Wyze Labs, a top-grossing electronics seller on TikTok Shop, the potential loss of TikTok in the U.S. means losing a sales channel that is oftentimes a top revenue driver for the brand, according to Jimmy Hadden, Wyze’s head of social commerce. He declined to specify how much of the brand’s total revenue comes from TikTok, but he said it was enough to be of “strategic importance.”
That’s why Wyze is plotting an expansion to TikTok Shop in Mexico, where the app’s e-commerce plans to launch next month. The move comes after TikTok Shop launched in Spain and Ireland. Such expansion suggests the social media app is trying to diversify beyond the U.S. market in the face of a ban, and brands like Wyze are following suit.
“We know that it’s a strategic fit for us to expand into Mexico, so, it’s going to be a great opportunity for us to be an early mover,” Hadden said.
Even TikTok Shop agencies like Outlandish are expanding to TikTok Shop in Mexico, its founder and CEO William August told Modern Retail in an interview. He has also been advising brands to make similar pivots, he said.
In the meantime, Wyze isn’t abandoning TikTok Shop in the U.S. until the company goes dark. Hadden said Wyze is still sending goods to affiliates and shooting livestreams on TikTok Shop in the U.S., although the company is holding off on any major inventory placements until the question of the ban is settled.
In contrast, Cell Phone Seat’s McIntosh, for the past week or so, has stopped focusing on TikTok entirely — that is, he’s no longer reaching out to affiliates or sending out free samples.
For the past year, McIntosh has steadily reduced his reliance on TikTok, a platform that won his independent business some initial success thanks to the “TikTok Made Me Buy It” phenomenon. But as more merchants joined the platform, it became harder to stand out. At the same time, a TikTok ban loomed on the horizon. TikTok once dominated his marketing budget, but now it’s more evenly divided between it and other platforms like Facebook and Instagram.
McIntosh makes most of his sales on Amazon, where he generates about $500 in sales a day. By comparison, he earns about $200 a day on TikTok Shop. Still, he’s concerned about how a TikTok ban will impact his Amazon sales since TikTok has been a major traffic driver to his Amazon storefront.
Apparel start-up Collars & Co, which found early success on TikTok, has also been steadily moving its advertising budget over to Meta Facebook and Reels, according to its founder and CEO Justin Baer. From 2023 to 2024, his brand’s ad spend on TikTok has fallen 25%, he said.
“The TikTok ban is going to have an impact, but I’m hoping there’s a net positive to it,” said Baer, who is optimistic the traffic on TikTok will move to Instagram and Reels. “But I don’t love the idea of losing 160,000 fans and the community we’ve built on TikTok.”
Update: This story has been updated to add in mention of the Supreme Court ruling, which came after publication.