Marketplace Briefing: Amazon’s fall Prime event sees early holiday surge as consumers chase discounts
This is the latest installment of the Marketplace Briefing, a weekly Modern Retail+ column about the ever-changing e-commerce marketplace landscape. More from the series →
Deal-hungry shoppers turned to Amazon’s October Prime Day this week, fueling an early holiday sales spike as consumers snapped up household staples and gifts amid concerns about inflation and the impact of President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies.
The two-day Prime Big Deal Days event, Amazon’s second Prime promotion of the year, has quickly become a bellwether for fourth-quarter e-commerce demand. Early results from brands point to solid sales gains compared with last October’s event, driven by customers stocking up on essentials and taking advantage of deeper markdowns ahead of Black Friday to buy holiday gifts. The strong turnout suggests that consumers are timing purchases around major discount windows — and that Amazon is well-positioned to capture a larger share of holiday budgets as shoppers continue to prioritize value.
The top five categories on Amazon bought during the e-commerce giant’s annual fall sales event were apparel and shoes, household essentials, home goods, beauty and cosmetics, and health and wellness, according to data firm Numerator’s Prime Day tracker. Shoppers took advantage of Prime Big Deal Days for holiday shopping, with 23% of participants telling Numerator they used the sale to purchase holiday gifts.
With tariffs continuing to squeeze margins and Amazon’s fall event historically drawing less traffic than its July counterpart, some participants worried this year’s fall Prime Day may see weaker consumer demand than usual. As Modern Retail previously reported, many Amazon merchants have already raised prices because of tariffs, further challenging their ability to compete on value. Liz LaVallee, COO of Avenue7Media, a consulting business that helps sellers grow on online marketplaces like Amazon, told Modern Retail in an interview that participating clients saw first-day sales climb 33% year-over-year.
“It was higher than I would have bet just based on consumer sentiment and the economy,” she said. “That’s a great early indicator that we could have a strong fourth quarter here.”
Phil Masiello, founder of acceleration agency CrunchGrowth, which manages about 70 clients across beauty, personal care and food, said his clients’ first-day sales were also up compared to last October’s event. Foods and small appliances outperformed, with sales up in the double digits. Meanwhile, clients in the beauty and personal care categories are seeing, on average, high single-digit growth, he said. Although some of his clients were wary of offering steep discounts to preserve their margins, he said the biggest discounts are driving the best sales.
He added that gift sets and bundles performed especially well, especially for lower-priced items. “When we do sets or the gift-type items … those are doing extremely well, which tells me that people are starting to think about holiday gifts,” Masiello said. “You have to figure out how to build value into your kit, your set, the product you’re selling — it doesn’t necessarily have to be total dollars off.”
That sensitivity to price was echoed by Denise De Baun, CEO of the red-light sleep device company Helight. The brand’s initial strategy was to offer a slightly lower discount for Prime Big Deal Days and reserve larger discounts for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. But sales slowed almost immediately, even as early as 7 a.m., when active Prime shoppers typically check in, according to De Baun. Helight reinstated its standard, higher discount on day two of the sales event, and “sales rebounded to mirror prior events,” she said.
“That responsiveness reinforced how price-driven and promotion-sensitive the Amazon customer has become, even within the premium wellness category,” she said. “Even modest adjustments in discount or retail price can have a material impact on conversion,” De Baun said. She added that “discount elasticity has tightened” in recent months as consumers become more responsive to perceived deal value.
Amazon’s fall sales event — and rival promotions from Walmart, Target and others — have effectively shifted the start of the holiday shopping season to early October. Walmart’s overlapping sales event kicked off Oct. 7, the same day as Amazon’s sale, and will run through Saturday. Meanwhile, Target Circle Week began Sunday and will also run until Saturday. Even DTC and specialty brands such as Miracle Made and Everlane launched parallel promotions; Miracle Made’s was even billed as a “Prime Time Sale,” according to its website.
LaVallee said the proliferation of competing events ultimately boosts traffic to Amazon. “It’s turning into more of a Black Friday than just a Prime Big Deal Days,” she said. “That made Amazon’s event stronger, because it got more promotion out there for the fact that these are two days that people should be shopping.”
Over 15% of total holiday spending will come before November, per forecasts from PwC, making October critical for retailers aiming to capture early demand. Robust participation this week could signal healthy holiday momentum, though overall spending growth is expected to moderate as economic uncertainty tempers consumer confidence. Tariffs are expected to weigh on holiday spending, in general, with retail sales for the 2025 holiday season projected to rise only 1.2%, per eMarketer.
This year’s Big Deal Days event comes after the e-commerce giant tested a four-day format for its bigger summer sale in July, which pushed overall online spending across all retailers to $24.1 billion. Masiello said several of his clients plan to extend discounts beyond the official two-day window. “Some brands just don’t think two days is enough to get traction,” he said. “People are still in the Prime Day world, and sale prices always move the needle on Amazon.” Smaller brands, he added, are using extended promotions to capture as much volume as possible while consumer attention remains high.
“I’m bullish on the fourth quarter,” Masiello said. “Deals are going to drive revenue growth through the rest of the year, and brands that build extreme value are going to win.”
What I’m reading
- Amazon rolled out Add to Delivery, a feature that lets U.S. Prime members add eligible items to an upcoming delivery with one tap, skipping checkout and avoiding extra shipping fees.
- Shein plans to open its first brick-and-mortar store in France this November, per Reuters.
- Walmart recently purchased a mall outside Pittsburgh, marking the retailer’s first foray into real estate strategy focused on mixed-use sites, according to The New York Times.