Marketplace Briefing: Amazon shoppers stockpile baby formula and trade down to cheaper diapers before tariffs raise prices
This is the latest installment of the Marketplace Briefing, a weekly Modern Retail+ column about the ever-changing e-commerce marketplace landscape. More from the series →
U.S. shoppers are rushing to Amazon to stockpile items like baby formula and trade down to cheaper brands before President Donald Trump’s tariffs spur price hikes.
Andrew Waber, director of market research at Momentum Commerce, a consulting company that manages online sales for brands including Crocs, Lego and Clorox, shared Amazon sales data that suggests consumers are stockpiling goods in several non-seasonal categories. Such purchases were likely driven by fears that tariffs will soon push prices higher.
Momentum Commerce analyzed Amazon’s top 500 subcategories by 2024 revenue and tracked week-over-week unit sales. The week beginning March 30 — just as the latest tariffs began to take effect — saw a major surge in specific categories, many of them typically stable. Sales of baby formula jumped by a staggering 26x week-over-week. Olives and antipasto rose 13.7x. Even sales of more discretionary items like yoga clothing were up 13.3x.
“These are not seasonal categories,” Waber said. “If you’re a big fan of imported olives and you think prices are about to go up, you stock up now.”
Amazon did not respond to a request for comment by press time.
Opting for cheaper goods
It’s not just a spike in sales volume. Momentum’s data also shows consumers are “trading down” to less expensive options. This is particularly evident in high-cost categories like vacuums, where legacy products are growing more expensive but consumers are gravitating toward cheaper alternatives.
Across Amazon’s top 1,000 products, average selling prices fell 0.8% year-over-year, reversing the platform’s pricing trend for the year to date. The diaper category saw a similar dynamic: The average selling price for top-selling products fell 3.9%, while pricing for historically top-ranked items — many sold by major brands — climbed 6%.
“It shows that consumers are reaching for slightly lower-priced items, while entrenched players are still increasing prices,” Waber said. “That’s going to be a challenge, especially in categories like diapers with big, established brands.” Procter & Gamble, owner of the Pampers brand, and Kimberly-Clark, which sells Huggies, are the two largest diaper makers, accounting for more than half of the U.S. market.
To be sure, the pricing analysis excludes limited-time discounts like coupons or Prime-exclusive deals, making it a more accurate reflection of true list price shifts. If brands lower their said prices in response to tariffs, those reductions would appear in the data — though Waber noted that’s not a common strategy during major sales events. Amazon’s week-long Big Spring Sale 2025 ran from March 25 to March 31.
Momentum’s pricing analysis found this trade-down trend was not uniform across categories. Consumers are still willing to spend more on skin care and pet supplies, for instance — categories that may represent what Waber called “affordable luxuries.”
“Maybe I’m not going to splurge on a new TV,” he said, “but I’m still going to buy my favorite face cream or treat my dog well.”
Momentum’s data also underscores the complexity brands now face in pricing decisions. As tariffs threaten to raise operating costs, many brands will need to decide whether to raise prices or find other ways to offset the cost without alienating price-conscious shoppers. As Modern Retail previously reported, this is an especially pressure-packed decision for Amazon’s third-party sellers, who account for roughly 60% of sales on the e-commerce platform and are also feeling squeezed by rising fees on Amazon.
“There’s a lot of soul-searching happening at brands right now,” Waber said. “If your consumer is moving toward more budget-friendly options, you have to ask yourself: What are my options to meet them there?”
So far, Momentum’s data suggests most brands haven’t raised prices significantly, in part because inventory already in warehouses was shipped before tariffs took effect. But Waber said this cushion may fade quickly.
“We’re still early in seeing marked price changes,” he said. “But consumers are already behaving as if prices are going to rise, and that’s a signal brands can’t afford to ignore.”
Shoppers race to buy before tariffs hit
The rise of consumer stockpiling comes as trade tensions escalate over Trump’s tariffs. The latest tariff includes a 10% universal import tax on many countries and a 145% duty on goods from China.
Federal retail data suggests U.S. consumers fueled a spending spree before tariffs started to go into effect. U.S. retail sales climbed 1.4% in March, the most in over two years, according to data from the Commerce Department published on Wednesday. The spike suggests consumers were scrambling to snap up goods ahead of tariffs, with purchases for cars and electronics driving the increase.
China-founded online marketplaces Temu and Shein have also seen sales surge in March and April as consumers raced to get ahead of tariff-related price hikes, Bloomberg reported.
Similarly, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC in an interview last week that the e-commerce giant has seen some indications that consumers are stockpiling “in certain categories.” But he also said it was “hard to know if it’s just an anomaly in the data… or how long it’s going to last.”
Sky Canaves, a retail analyst at eMarketer, said the current wave of stockpiling reflects a more calculated mindset than past moments of crisis, such as the pandemic, when consumers hoarded goods like toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
“Unlike emergency situations, this isn’t panic buying out of fear — it’s consumers being more selective and strategic,” said Canaves. “They’re choosing what to buy in advance, depending on their priorities and what they can afford to stockpile.”
What I’m reading
- Shein and Temu separately told U.S. customers that their prices will go up starting April 25, per The Information.
- Chinese TikTok influencers on TikTok are urging U.S. consumers to bypass Trump’s tariffs by buying goods directly from factories in China, according to Bloomberg.
- Amazon’s book sale is set to return for the second year in a row, running from April 23 to April 28, the company announced.