Despite a looming TikTok ban, social commerce takes center stage at NRF
Retail executives and analysts attending this week’s NRF Big Show spoke confidently about the future of social commerce, even as the fate of TikTok in the U.S. is uncertain.
“Social commerce has been a big part of the way we’ve grown our brand,” Linda Li, head of customer activation & marketing for H&M Americas, said in a panel at the event on Monday. “I don’t think any brand can be relevant for this younger generation… without social commerce.”
Similarly, Sky Canaves, principal analyst for eMarketer, proclaimed in a panel introduction, “Whether TikTok Shop or TikTok survives in its present form or not, social commerce is here to stay.”
Social commerce, or the promotion, buying and selling of goods and services within a social media platform, has long been huge in Asia; EMarketer projects social commerce sales in China will total $1.06 trillion in 2025 and account for 32.2% of all online sales this year. The size of the market in the U.S. is much smaller — at $85.6 billion in 2025 — but it is rapidly growing, with sales on pace to hit $137 billion in 2028, according to eMarketer estimates shared at NRF. The market research company also estimates that 37% of the U.S. population will make a social purchase in 2025, motivating brands to increase their presence on these channels.
Still, the platforms those brands use, especially in North America, could change. TikTok Shop has been a popular choice since its official launch in September 2023, and brands like Cakes Body have generated millions of dollars in sales from the platform. However, TikTok could disappear from U.S. app stores as soon as January 19 if its owner, ByteDance, does not sell its stake in the social media app. TikTok is currently challenging the ban in the Supreme Court, and a ruling is expected as soon as this week.
At NRF, brand executives praised social commerce platforms like TikTok, saying they have helped drive sales and bring in new audiences. In a session on Sunday, Pacsun CEO Brieane Olson mentioned that Pacsun has had a presence on TikTok Shop for the past 18 to 24 months and has seen “just amazing engagement from the consumer.”
“Over the holidays last year, we did 60,000 pairs of jeans in a four-day span on TikTok Shop,” Olson said.
Outside of TikTok, brands are testing out other platforms. Pacsun has been using Douyin, TikTok’s sister brand in China, and has seen “really great results,” Olson said. Li said that while TikTok is a platform where H&M invests “time and energy,” the brand is building its presence on Pinterest and Snapchat.
The flip-flop brand Havaianas is based in Brazil and does not have access to TikTok Shop, Fernando Rosa, president of Havaianas Brazil, said during a panel on Monday. But the brand has also been able to grow sales online by leveraging “social capital” via influencer-led campaigns, he explained.
Kelly Pedersen, partner and global retail leader at PwC, told Modern Retail in an interview that it’s possible that other platforms will see an influx of users following a TikTok ban. If one platform disappears, others will be waiting in the wings.
To that point, Pinterest, which H&M uses to link to its product pages, has become popular among Gen Zers looking for inspiration from brands. Shoppers are also checking out via Instagram, thanks to partnerships with retailers like Target. RedNote — known in China as Xiaohongshu and referred to as the country’s version of Instagram — and Lemon8 — another ByteDance social media app, which came to the U.S. and U.K. in 2023 — are seeing an increase in downloads, as well.
Shopify — which was TikTok’s original partner for launching in-app social shopping in 2021 — is also seeing social commerce become more widespread, Bobby Morrison, the company’s chief revenue officer, said in an interview. “We’re going to continue to invest and be aggressive in that space,” he told Modern Retail. “You see a lot of express checkouts happening in Instagram and TikTok, and as new platforms emerge and new social spheres emerge, we’ll continue to be there.”
While many executives at NRF seem bullish on the future of social commerce in general, some are more mixed on livestream shopping. According to Olson, Pacsun was one of the first brands to livestream videos on TikTok Shop. However, Li said H&M has found livestreaming less useful. “We’ve tried various types of livestreaming, and we have not seen the conversion numbers,” Li explained.
However, Li added that livestreaming is “an area to watch.”
“The more that it develops, the more that influencers will hone that craft and that will help going forward,” she said.