Modern Retail+ Research: How Lalo, Caraway and Boll & Branch adapted to 2025’s unpredictable start

It certainly hasn’t been an easy start to the year. As one of the focus group participants, Lalo CEO and co-founder Greg Davidson, described it, the first half of the year was all about “trying to get a peek in the future of what was going to stabilize, and trying to fit and project that into your business, and then making some baseline assumptions to best set yourself up for for the second half [of the year].”

Part one of the conversation dives into what consumer signals these executives saw during the first half of the year and how they adjusted. Part two, coming later this week, will dive into how they are planning for the holidays. This conversation has been lightly edited for clarity and length. 

Focus group members

• Greg Davidson, CEO and co-founder of the baby and toddler brand Lalo, which sells furniture and accessories like a high chair, bibs, play kits and more. Lalo got its start as a direct-to-consumer brand, and now sells through places like Amazon, Target and West Elm. 
• Jordan Nathan, CEO and founder of Caraway, a cookware brand that sells pots and pans featuring a non-stick and nontoxic ceramic coating surface, in addition to other kitchen items like food storage containers. Caraway got its start as a direct-to-consumer brand, and now sells through places like Amazon, Target, Crate & Barrel and Sur La Table.
• Katia Unlu, chief commercial officer at Boll & Branch, a home goods brand known for its luxury, organic bedding that has since expanded into other areas like bath robes and mattresses. Boll & Branch got its start as a direct-to-consumer brand and now sells through places like Amazon, Nordstrom and Bloomingdale’s. Boll & Branch also has a dozen of its own stores. 

I’m curious to know, regarding the first half of the year, how did it go differently than what you thought at the beginning of the year? 

Davidson: “We did something really interesting in January, which was we actually lowered our prices — obviously, not knowing about the tariffs. The idea behind that [was] … trying to protect parents. There had already been price increases prior to the tariffs across a variety of brands in our space. And so we sort of said, ‘OK, let’s lower the prices,’ as we thought that would actually be a healthy strategy, especially as we entered into retail and Target. … Not even [three weeks] into our Target launch, it was ‘Liberation Day,’ where it feels like the rug got pulled out from everyone, and everyone had to scramble just to figure out what was going to be the new normal.” 

Nathan: “We had a really strong last year, and we had a great start to this year. And I think this year is and was a big, pivotal moment for the company. We’ve added 25 or 30 new people, really [focused on] expanding product ways, and had a lot of big initiatives around going deeper into non-toxic and education and omnichannel. And a couple of months in, we’ve had to pivot a little bit and change focus. So internal priorities have shifted to tariffs. But while it’s been challenging, it’s also been just a really interesting moment to look at a lot of the areas of the business.

We took a different course than most: We changed all pricing on [May 15]. Most brands, we felt like, were going to wait. And my general sentiment was, ‘I’d rather understand what the new norm is off the new pricing and not wait.’ Tariffs are going to be here, regardless of what they’re going to be. … For us, we do 50% of our sales in Q4, so understanding [how consumers reacted to pricing] was really important, so that we could correctly inventory forecast. … And then, internally, we started the year with all these really exciting initiatives, and we’ve kind of had to pause them, and the whole team’s really been mobilized around tariffs. 

While it’s been challenging, there have been a lot of good wins. On a number of products, we found ways to reduce costs on packaging that was excessive. We’ve been exposed to new areas of sourcing. The team’s gotten really creative in marketing.

I think the consumer right now is very focused on value. … For us, we’ve been leaning into helping the consumer achieve value in a really challenging environment.”

Unlu: “Listening to what both of you guys said, … I think we probably have a very similar discerning consumer. We are definitely coming from a more fortunate place, because a lot of our sourcing is out of places that aren’t getting — potentially getting — a larger impact [from tariffs]. So we have really continued to stay focused on the long term. I feel like all of us have been on this journey for the last five or six years, since Covid — up and down. We’re continuing to stay focused on the long term here and making sure that whatever decisions we’re making now are not going to impact the consumer and the customer experience in the long term.”

A thing that I am constantly fascinated by is that most executives will say, “The consumer really values ‘value’ right now, and they’re more discerning.” I’m curious how that manifests itself for you all, and how brands can address that.

Unlu: “This is such a tiny example, but I think it just speaks to a lot of what we’re trying to do and our strategy. … Omnichannel has definitely been a huge piece of what we’re doing. We doubled our store count from seven to … we’re gonna end the year with 15. [We’re focused on] not just being in the, kind of, DTC, CAC maniacal situation.

Especially now that we have this physical presence where our customers are, going above and beyond and servicing those customers is, 100%, what we’re trying to do with this strategy. 

I was on a store manager call on Monday, and I love those calls because they give me such an insight around what the boots-on-the-ground team is actually doing. And one of the store managers had this story where a customer called. They were outside the store, it was during off hours, and the store was closed. The customer was like, ‘I have guests coming over, and I really need to get a sheet set.” And the store manager was like, ‘No problem. I’ll drive to her house and I will bring you a sheet set so you have it tomorrow for your guests coming over.’

That’s a perfect example of what we’re trying to do. We’re building relationships one-to-one with these customers. That’s a customer that I’m going to have for life, right? That person’s never going to forget us going above and beyond for them. So in a time where I feel like everybody is just trying to throw out 12,000 promotions, and everyone’s just being competitive in this promo space, we’re really focused on customer one-to-one service.”

Greg, I’d be curious from your perspective [how you spoke to your consumer about tariffs]. I feel like parents, especially, were inundated for a couple months, with price increases on things like strollers. It must have just been very overwhelming for your core audience. 

Davidson: “Totally. We took a little bit of a different approach than Jordan. I don’t think either one is wrong or right. We were one of the last to [raise prices] in our space. We had just changed prices in January to, obviously, help [parents], so we were in a bit of a different position. 

I’ll be totally transparent – we had a fantastic Q4. We hit our numbers on Amazon, specifically – though we missed our AOV number by about 30-40%. But we did five times the amount of units we did year-over-year from the year prior. What we’re seeing — and we see similar patterns to that, especially during Prime Day and other promotional times — is that the highly considered items are still being highly considered.

Another good example we have is we just launched the hook-on high chair at the end of June. It’s a $90 price point product, and it [can] go with you everywhere. It’s been, by far — it’s not even close — the best launch we’ve ever had of a net new product. And I think it speaks to [the value consumers want]. It’s not 200 bucks. It can go with you anywhere, so it has a lot of that value inherently built into it. It looks a little bit better than the [competition]. It has a couple more features, and I think that is what’s really speaking to the customer right now. It’s not that the product has to be the best of the best of the best — although, of course, ours is. But those little additional features at the right price point really speak to that value.” 

Jordan, what are you seeing? 

Nathan: “I don’t think it’s new this year, … but consumers are squeezed right now; debt’s high. You can’t buy a house. Groceries are expensive, and [the consumer’s] still spending, but they’re being really thoughtful about where the spending is going. We’ve [been focused on] really highlighting the value of an investment in a nice cookware set. … Where we’ve been just leaning in is helping consumers understand [the value] of their investment in their health and making the right decisions. 

We have some ads running now, where we found some stat: The average person in the U.S spends $2,000 or $3,000 on eating at restaurants each year, versus eating at home. And so we’re leaning into the value of investing in a really good cookware set, even though it’s expensive. 

Another thing we’re doing this year is launching a sweepstakes on our site. Every dollar you spend equals a point, and the winner will get a full kitchen redesign or $100,000. This is something we weren’t planning on doing at the start of the year, but given the consumer is looking for something extra on their purchase, it will be really fun to test out.”

I’m curious if there are any other weird anecdotes or interesting consumer behaviors that you’re seeing that you’re not quite sure what to do with? 

Unlu: “I think, again, like value can come from a lot of different places. I feel like that’s the theme here.” 

Nathan: “One thing we’ve been noticing and really leaning into … with people having tighter wallets right now — and I know this is different in beauty and fashion, from founders I’ve talked with, but at least in our category — is that when [customers are] going to spend, they’re going to spend with a brand that they trust, especially at price points like ours. 

Our repeat rates have been continuing to increase. Part of that [is because] we have more customers, and we have more products. I think the sentiment we’ve seen with consumers is: ‘If I’m gonna spend $400 on a cookware set, and I’ve bought from this brand before and I’ve really liked them, I’m less likely to go try some other brand. I want to know what I’m getting for my money.’”

Davidson: “I do think people right now are preferring to go to channels like Amazon — or it could be into their Target — just to buy the thing that they need. I think [there’s] a certain amount of trust knowing I can return it super easily. … They’re just being a little bit more cautious across the board with their wallets and where they’re going to spend. But they’re going to spend, and they’re going to spend at the places that they trust the most.”

Nathan: “Greg, I don’t know if you saw [the same thing] on Prime Day, but our site did better than expected.” 

Davidson: “I would actually say the same, which I know is a little bit [contradictory]/ … [Our site] did better than our expectations, and Amazon actually did not do as well, based on our expectations. … I think, being totally honest, we were also [taking part in] Target’s Circle Week, and so we have a lot of newness going on. I’ve heard this from a lot of brands that Prime Day did not meet people’s expectations this year, especially compared to last year. Obviously, it’s four days versus two, which I think was maybe silly.” 

Unlu: “I’ve generally found that July has become a bit of a summer Black Friday, right? I started to see that messaging at some point last year, and then I feel like, this year, it was even more true. 

Davidson: “Jordan, do you have a feeling — because [my co-founder and I] have talked about this — that the customer is warming up for Black Friday. I think their wallets are super tight.

[If you look at the second half of the year] you have Memorial Day [sales], then you have Prime Day, then you have another Prime Day in October, you have Labor Day, and then you have Black Friday. I think that those other promo periods are going to be softer [this year], generally, and that people are going to be holding on to their dollars for Q4.” 

Unlu: “I feel I agree with your general sentiment. I feel like, also, every single year, everybody, all the analysts, predict early shopping: ‘Everyone is going to shop early,’ and it literally never happens. People always wait till the last minute. It’s always like, ‘How late can you ship that?’ That’s always the name of the game, and it’s gonna be true this year.”