Against this backdrop, brands and platforms are recalibrating their strategies in real time, rethinking pricing and inventory as they prepare for what’s expected to be one of the most closely watched Prime Days yet. Amazon hasn’t disclosed exact dates yet, but Prime Day is expected to take place in mid-July this year.

Here are five key trends to keep an eye on.

Consumers are eager — but only for deep discounts

Shoppers are preparing to open their wallets this Prime Day — but only if the deals deliver.

In a survey of 1,000 Prime members conducted by Tinuiti from May 6 to May 9, more than 80% of respondents said they expect to shop on Amazon during Prime Day this year. That’s up 12% from 68% last year. Among returning shoppers, 41% said they expect to spend more than they did last year. But that optimism comes with a caveat: Buyers are bracing for higher prices and want steeper discounts in return.

In the face of rising tariffs, 36% of shoppers said they’ll need to see larger-than-usual markdowns before pulling the trigger. Another 32% are planning to stock up on products they believe will get more expensive later in the year. As Modern Retail previously reported, Amazon shoppers are already stockpiling goods like olives and yoga gear because of tariffs, and Prime Day presents a strong opportunity for brands to get in front of panic-buying consumers.

A full third of respondents have already delayed purchases earlier in the year due to pricing pressure, signaling that many are treating Prime Day as a make-or-break opportunity to catch up on essential spending or even get a jump on their holiday shopping.

“It’s a bit of a double-edged sword,” said Andy Taylor, vp of research at Tinuiti. “Consumers want to take part, but they also want to see those big discounts, so the extent to which brands are able to offer those discounts is certainly going to be at play.”

That’s especially true in categories hit hardest by rising input costs. “Brands are going to be active at trying to persuade consumers, and that’s certainly going to be dependent on the brand and where they’re sourcing products,” Taylor said.

Discounting slows as brands look to preserve profitability

Shoppers’ appetite for steep discounts could lead to a mismatch this summer shopping season.

As summer sales events like Prime Day approach, new data from CommerceIQ reveals a significant shift in retail pricing strategies, with retailers pulling back on discounts. The e-commerce analytics firm analyzed billions of dollars in revenue across its client portfolio of Amazon vendors, finding that average discounts have fallen from 22% to 13% over the past 18 months. Meanwhile, over the same period, gross margins rose to 23% in March 2025, up from 19% in October 2023.

To Dane Tomalin, CommerceIQ’s director of product marketing, the shift signals that retailers are looking to protect profit margins in an uncertain economic landscape. Retailers will likely continue to prioritize margin protection over revenue growth. As Tomalin put it, “Retailers are facing a pretty uncertain macro environment.” Despite this, as well as “a lot of fatigue from consumers on high prices,” Tomalin said he still expects this year’s Prime Day to be the company’s biggest one yet. Amazon has steadily grown its Prime Day revenue every year since the summer sales event launched in 2015, and the extended duration of this year’s Prime event will likely continue that trend.

Many sellers previously told Modern Retail that while they plan to participate in this year’s Prime Day sales event, they expect to discount less aggressively than in years past in order to protect their margins in the face of tariff pressure. An Amazon spokesperson previously told Modern Retail that the company is working with sellers to adapt to the evolving environment while maintaining low prices and broad selection for customers.

Day-to-day essentials will be especially attractive to Prime Day shoppers

Amazon is increasingly becoming a destination for restocking everyday essentials, including this Prime Day.

According to Tinuiti, more than half of Prime members who plan to shop the sale say they’ll be purchasing items they would have bought anyway, regardless of the event. That includes pantry staples, pet supplies and personal care products, signaling a shift in consumer focus amid lingering economic uncertainty. This data builds on a shift in shopping behavior observed during last year’s Prime Day, when inflation-pinched consumers drove a record $14.2 billion in sales, per Adobe Analytics, but focused on snapping up household goods and everyday essentials.

Among the top essentials on shoppers’ lists are health and beauty products, with 42% of survey respondents indicating they plan to stock up during the sale. Food and grocery items follow closely at 30%, while 29% say they’ll be buying pet supplies.

This behavior is likely driven in part by tariff-related pricing anxiety. Shoppers don’t know how prices may evolve in the months ahead, and many are treating Prime Day as a chance to lock in current pricing on things they know they’ll need. The four-day window may also play a role by giving shoppers more time to comparison-shop and bulk-buy staples across different categories.

“Consumers are worried about how the economy will fare in the back half of the year and how product prices will change moving forward,” Tinuiti’s Taylor said. “A lot of consumers are very concerned about how things will look in the future.”

The battle between Walmart+ and Amazon Prime heats up

Amazon Prime remains the dominant retail membership program in the U.S., but Walmart+ is steadily closing the loyalty gap.

According to a recent analysis from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, 98% of Walmart+ members say they “definitely” or “probably” plan to renew their subscriptions — a figure that slightly edges out Amazon Prime’s 97% renewal intent for the first time since CIRP started tracking Prime memberships a decade ago. Though Walmart+ remains smaller in size, the findings suggest it’s building meaningful member stickiness just a few years after launch.

“Walmart has seen increasing renewal intent since introducing Walmart+ in 2022,” CIRP analysts Michael Levin and Josh Lowitz wrote in a report published Tuesday.

That growing loyalty could translate into increased Prime Day competition. Tinuiti data shows that 56% of Prime members plan to browse Walmart’s site during this year’s Prime Day event. Even among loyal Amazon customers, comparison shopping has become the norm. According to Tinuiti, 82% of Prime Day shoppers plan to browse at least one other site or app, and 41% plan to check three or more.

China-founded e-commerce sites like Temu and Shein will also remain in the mix despite price increases brought on by tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption. Tinuiti found that 15% of Prime members still plan to shop on Temu during the Prime Day period, while 19% say they’ll browse Shein.

AI-powered shopping assistants enter the spotlight

AI tools, including Amazon’s chatbot Rufus, are expected to play a bigger role this summer shopping season.

Thirty-four percent of respondents planning to shop during Prime Day said they expect to use ChatGPT to research deals compared to 33% who plan to use Rufus.

That small gap highlights a broader trend: Prime members are no longer relying exclusively on Amazon or Google for product discovery. Retailers like Amazon are leaning into AI to make it easier for shoppers to find deals, evaluate purchases and cross-check prices. Amazon’s own tools, while gaining traction, are still relatively new, as Rufus was rolled out to U.S. Amazon shoppers in the U.S. last summer ahead of Prime Day. Respondents were more than twice as likely to say they didn’t know what Rufus was, compared to ChatGPT.

“That’s going to be part of Amazon’s goal moving forward: to make consumers more aware of Rufus and what it can do for them,” Taylor said.

What I’m reading

• Business Insider reported that TikTok Shop is transitioning from offering free organic views to a pay-to-play model, requiring sellers to invest in paid advertisements to maintain visibility and sales.
• Temu’s daily U.S. users dropped 58% in May, according to Sensor Tower data cited by Reuters.
• Chinese e-commerce giants Temu and Shein continue to prioritize the U.S. market due to its vast consumer base, even as they attempt to expand into Europe, per Bloomberg.

What we’ve covered

• How live-shopping platforms are bucking the funding doldrums
• Tariff ruling leaves brands in the lurch as bills pile up
• How a small, family-owned toy business put a dent in Trump’s tariffs